Flow Analysis

Analytical technique for computing process performance measures directly from the process structure and per-activity durations, without simulation (sources/2018-dumas-fundamentals-of-bpm, §7.1).

Core calculations

Cycle time (sequential blocks)

CT = Σ T_i — sum of activity durations along a sequential block.

XOR blocks

CT = Σ p_i × T_i — probability-weighted average.

AND blocks

CT = max(T_i) — longest parallel branch.

Rework blocks

CT = T / (1 − r) — geometric expansion for a rework probability r.

Critical Path Method (CPM) (§7.1.2)

The longest path through the process — determines the minimum achievable cycle time.

Little's Law (§7.1.4)

WIP = λ × CT (work-in-progress = arrival rate × cycle time). Connects throughput, queue length, and cycle time; central to capacity planning.

Capacity and bottlenecks (§7.1.5)

Identify the resource with highest utilisation; cycle-time improvements upstream of the bottleneck don't help.

Cost flow analysis (§7.1.6)

Same compositional rules applied to per-activity costs.

Limitations (§7.1.7)

Assumes deterministic or stable probabilistic structure.
Ignores queueing dynamics (use simulation or queueing theory for those).
Cannot model resource contention.

methods/process-simulation · concepts/devils-quadrangle · concepts/bpm-lifecycle